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tv   The Kudlow Report  CNBC  August 1, 2013 7:00pm-8:01pm EDT

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got to tell you something, when you see the kinds of quarters we saw today, shoot the lights out when you get a great number from china, great number from europe and america, the back drop is so compelling. i'm jim cramer and i will see you tomorrow! record highs again for the dow. no taper from the fed. hold everything. tom's jobs report comes out. we will see if that changes anything. on capitol hill meanwhile, the obama care battle is raging. question -- should obama care opponents focus on defunding the plan or make work harder at getting the individual mandate repealed? senator ted cruz joins us exclusively to tell us about his strategy. >> and then russia spits in president obama's eye and gives
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asylum to nsa leaker edward snowden. next month's summit in russia still go on? can the white house let this happen without any response? all those stories and much more coming up on the "kudlow report" beginning right now. >> good evening, everyone. i'm larry kudlow. this is the "kudlow report." first up tonight, very strong start for stocks this month. the dow and s&p closing at record highs. by the way, it's the first time the s&p has closed above 1,700 points. with yesterday's dovish fed statement, you got solid earnings this quarter and some positive economic data with today's jobless claims. are we in the perfect climate for stocks? we never are but we have to ask our distinguished experts. first up, dennis gartman and we
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have ed bartowski. i want to go to my pal dennis gartman. you know better than i do, there's never a perfect scenario. when you think everything is perfect, it's not perfect. i wanted to ask you as you see the world, where's the fly in this ointment going to come from? >> well, i guess, larry, the fly in the ointment, though i'm not convinced there is one is rates are going to be rising eventually and that will be d t detrimental to bond prices. you and i can remember trading the long bond at 15 yield and i think what you have is the
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market wants to go higher, it is going higher, the fed is go to eventually stop the aggressive accommodation and i think the economy is doing better than people want to think it's doing, better than much of the data tells us it's doing. stocks want to go higher. i've been bullish around the world and really smart guys keep trying to sell it short and it just blows up in their face. >> that's true. ed, i want to get new here. i don't think you're quite as optimistic. a lot of issues here. how good is the economy? all these gdp revisions came out yesterday. they had pretty lousy numbers when you looked at them. i don't think the fed is going to taper but, whatever, it's already in the market. where do you think a fly in the ointment might potentially be? >> it's funny because i'm very, very negative on our economy but i have been and continue to be bullish on stock price, which to some might sound counter to each other but they're really not.
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the fly in the ointment, we all have studied this market for many years. when you see investor sentiment, put consumer confidence aside because that's not meaningful. investor sentiment, when people are all excited about the market, runs are usually not so good afterwards. i'm comfortable, rnearnings are coming in strong, the ceos and cfos have done a magnificent job of managing their companies. but can you only do so much. if revenues start to fall off a little and you see those revisions lower, that to me is the big concern. in the meanwhile i think the economy is horrible, gdp numbers are terrible and having said all of that stuff, stocks are going to go higher. >> that's a little hard for me to take, dan. i'm going to go to dan greenhaus. i don't want to get too technical but nominal gdp, total
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spending in the economy, real dd gdp plus -- i want to ask you, if we don't get the expected rise in jobs or in the next couple month, how big a toll might that take on the stock market? >> yeah, there's a lot of weight being placed on tomorrow's number but admittedly son of that weight has been mitigated of late, particularly today with the drop in jobless claims and surprisingly large claims in the ism manufacturing index. tomorrow's number is really the second after the ism number, we're still at the opening stages of whether that argument will be proven right. so far it does look like growth is going to pick up. >> dennis gartman, what if
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growth doesn't pick up? i don't want to paint a bearish view of myself. my own views are kind of mid limidling right now. i don't think the federal is going to taper but i don't see how can you have a good stock market if earnings don't deliver. earnings are coming through okay in this quarter. okay, looks like 5%, 6%. what's your take on that? >> what we have seen over the course of the last six, seven years, corporate america has done a really good job of cleaning up its balance sheet, it's paid down debt. even consumer america has done a very good job. if there is another fly in the ointment, it's will revenues and earnings be stronger? you can only pare the economy
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and corporations down so far before you need to see real revenues. when you drive and fly around the country, go to new york, go to cleveland, go to chicago, the streets are businessies, the restaurants are busy, the airlines are packed. to me, i'm sorry, i don't see a determined, ill economy out there. i see a really strong economy. >> if i can jump in to say to dennis's point, people have been talking about you can only cut your way to prosperity. i was saying it in 2010. it's been several years now. companies have managed what we'll call a terrible environment for several years and the stock markets has gone higher. even if larry is right and growth disappoints in the second half of the year. even if growth disappoints in the second half the year, there's nothing to say the last three years can't be repeated again, that is to say higher stock prices. >> if we continue to see slow growth, we're going to continue to see our debt rise and that is a huge problem. >> no, that's not a problem.
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>> that's not a problem? >> no. >> okay. >> we've been hearing about this -- ted cruz is coming up later. he's been talking about this for three years. s stock market is up -- >> i'm not talking about that. if we don't get gdp growing, we're going to continue to see our debt rise. i don't agree with you at all. i think it's a huge problem. >> i have heard this argument for 40 years of being in the business, that the debt of the united states is egregious and large and getting worse and we cannot continue. i bet i hear that ten years from now. i bet we hear it, hopefully if i'm still alive, 20 years from now. it has been a problem i've heard about all my life and has not been a problem. >> go talk to the people in detroit and ask them how their debt problem is. >> i agree. detroit's got problem. listen to president obama. i think he's got this one right.
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the deficit has come down substantially. spending has come down substantially. a good left-wing keynesian would be worried we're not getting enough fiscal stimulus. i don't believe any of that nonsense but that's what they would be saying. it's hard for me to worry about that. i am more concerned about capital spending and whether businesses will invest and that's the ultimate job creator. at this point i'm just trying to find, you know, poke a hole or two. things look so good. every single sector today was up, ed butkowsky. when i see that and see this euphoric, i think i better look for something else. you get the last word. >> i have been bullish for many years and you just take a snapshot. right now this evenings look gr. anybody who dropped down from outer space and looked at stock
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prices, you say things look really good. however, you really never know. >> thank you dennis gartman, dan greenhaus, we appreciate it. stocks aren't the only thing that's hot right now, so is the car business. more specifically the truck and suv industry. and later on in the show, what's the best way to stop economic threats from obama care. some want to set up a government shut down battle. i'd rather focus on repealing the individual mandate. senator ted cruz from texas will join to us talk about his plan as he barnstorms the country. and free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity and obama care has nothing in common with free market capitalism. i'm kudlow. we will be right back. [ male announcer ] come to the golden opportunity sales event
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one very bright spot in our otherwise slow and shaky recovery is the auto industry. july auto sale numbers came out today and the industry saw a 14% increase compared to last july. it's on pace for 16.6 million sales this year and that growth
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brings us pretty close to our prerecession highs. so can the car industry carry the rest of the economy back on stable ground? here now is senior analyst michelle crebbs. you know i have to say it, michelle, what's driving the car industry? >> what's fueling it? >> that's interesting. we didn't see a lot of cars during the recession. the cars on the road are really old. so people are having to get a car and they're helped by the fact that credit is cheap and they're much more available than it was and we're seeing leasing coming back, which didn't pretty much exist during the recession. >> did this jump in interest rates roughly a hundred basis points have any impact on credit for car sales? >> it doesn't appear to. you know, remember, the car companies have their own financial arms so they have ways
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of keeping the rates low. we saw a lot of 0% financing this last month. toyota camry, for example. you saw a lot of that. >> are we talking trucks here, are we talking the energy boom? are we talking the nason housing boom? who is buying all these cars? >> well, we know that full-size pickup trucks are driven by the construction industries and housing industries but also energy and agriculture and all those sectors are up and that mean pickup sales are up. the other thing is there's new product and that gets the market excited. chrysler had the new ram 1500 and that's posting huge and the silverado and of course the ford f series always the biggest seller in the market, and that had a big month. >> what's your estimates of
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sales for the year in 15.6 million through july. >> 15.6 for july of the second highest rate of the year. we expect for the full year it will be about 15.5. >> so we're going to flatten out from here? >> we had some bumpy months. last month it was 15.9, this month, 15.6. second half is when sales really come into play, october, november, december so we expect pickup truck sales to grow. >> are people buying small cars, sedans? families in. >> the mid size, camry, honda accord, those cars in that
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segment. toyota camry and honda accord are duking it out for who will be number one and the nissan altima are selling like gang busters. and small cars have been doing really well. a couple of things are at play. older people, empty nesters, are downsizing going to smaller, more fuel efficient cars but we're finally seeing millennials get back in the market. they were unemployed, saddled with a lot of college debt and now they're getting back in the market. >> michelle krebs, bullish on the car market. >> and a case that could open the door for a lot more prosecution, we have the latest on that story just ahead on kudlow.
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all right, some news today. president obama looks to make some very big changes at the irs. the president today nominated john koskinen to be the new head of that agency. president obama says his record as a reformer makes him ideal for the job. the agency is still buried in scandal where irs agents admittedly targeted conservative groups unfairly. he's got his work cut out for him. >> now, a surprising verdict and
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a big win for the s.e.c. mary thompson has been covering the story for us. >> good evening, larry. it was a jury of five women and four men who found the former goldman sachs vice president liable on those civil counts after day and a half of deliberation. the 34-year-old showing little emotion in the courtroom, penalties including a possible lifetime ban from the securities industries, to be decided later by judge katherine forest. over the more than two-week trial, the s.e.c. repeatedly referenced e-mails sent to and by tourre. the jury found him liable in withholding information from a hedge fund.
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he earned a billion dollars on his bet and the others on the side of the trade lost the billion. this trial, the highest profile to be brought by the s.e.c. will embolden the agency to take more aggressive actions with other entities and individuals that the s.e.c. believes did wrong doing. larry, back to you. >> mary, how much is this going to cost tourre? are they going to fine him some humongous amount? >> we don't know yet. the prosecution puts forward their proposals for penalties and she will take them under consideration and decide those at a later date. it continues to be part of a waiting game. at that time his team cannot decide whether to appeal until the penalties have been decided by the judge. >> and do you see this as a
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turning point? in other words, the s.e.c. needed a big win. i guess they got a big win. do you see this as a turning point for jurors who say we let a bunch of guys off the hook five years ago, we're not going to do it anymore? >> with jurors i would hesitate to say. you're dealing with nine individuals and you're not sure what their status is. as far as the s.e.c. goes, a number of people do believe that it is -- it will basically support what the new s.e.c. commissioner, mary jo white, is trying to present at the s.e.c., which is a tougher image. and this is kind of a first step in pushing this forward in the public view and sending out a remainder to people and corporations out there who might be subject to the s.e.c.'s actions. >> all right. many thanks, mary thompson. appreciate it. >> now, is russia spitting in president obama's eye by
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offering asylum to nsa leaker edward snowden? sure looks like it. what exactly is the president going to do about this? we have more on this developing story next on kudlow. ♪ "first day of my life" by bright eyes ♪ you're not just looking for a house. you're looking for a place for your life to happen.
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is russia's decision to give nsa leaker edward snowden asylum a slap in the face of president obama? let's talk. we have ariel cohen, senior research fellow at the heritage foundation. welcome. >> thank you. >> is this a sign of american weakness? how do you read this? >> russia loves to have america begging. it loves to have president obama looking like another jimmy carter. they wanted to us big for information about the tsarnaev brothers, the boston bombers. they want us to beg for them to stop supplying president assad of syria with modern weapons. now they had obama begging to let mr. snowden go. this is exactly where according to russian political culture you should have your political adversary at. on his knees begging. that's what gives them the biggest kick. >> putin has said -- i'm not
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going to defend putin. i'm just saying putin said earlier russia has never pushed anyone out who wanted asylum. i just wonder what else should obama have done or what else should eric holder have done? >> well, there are plenty of people we know of who are spying for russia, so some kind of a swap was possible, i think, if we wanted to play what the russian play. the favorite russian political sport is hard ball. we didn't want to do it. weep said that we're going to go through the legal channels. we went through the legal channels and we got a big resounding nyet, no. here we are. and of course the question is what can the russians ask for us that they want and trade snowden, not directly. they're not going to push him out --
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>> ariel, hang on just one moment, please. i want to get the latest on exactly what happened today with snowden and for that we go to eamon with some details. >> good evening. the information we have as of now is that edward snowden has been granted a one-year visa to live in russia. they're going to allow him to stay while they process his overall asylum application. we're here at one of the biggest hacker and cyber security conferences all year long, the first big security conference since the edward snowden revelation. yesterday they had the head of the nsa reaching out to this community. a lot of the folks here tell us they've seen upset about what they've seen in its revelations about what the nsa has been doing. but facing heckling from the crowd during his comments yesterday, we caught up with him in a hallway outside of the
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event just after -- here's what he told us. >> do you think edward snowden should be able to stay here? >> sl or do you think he should come back and face justice? >> absolutely. >> a lot of people support snowden, they like what he's done here. others, a lot of folks here are contractors, they work for the federal government and for the department of homeland security. they're skeptical about snowden. >> eamon javers, we appreciate
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it. >> okay. what's going to happen with the upcoming summit? how do you read that? >> obama thought that improvement of relations with russia is his big achievement. now we see it exploding in his face. it's not just snowden. we are on opposite sides of the political divide on syria. the russians are doing nothing to stop the iranian nuclear program and the internal crackdown, the james sentences for people like the oil tycoon in jail for ten years, the death of the whistleblower in russia and now snowden goes to russia. not exactly the epitome of human rights protection. a country that jails political opponents and he thinks russia will give him political cover. >> do you think the united states will now get tougher
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regarding anti-ballistic missile systems for europe, for example? that was something i thought obama looked very weak on a couple years ago. >> absolutely. the russians went crazy about their opposition to our missile defense, which is a defense system. and we signed an arms control agreement that benefits russia and cuts our nuclear forces. obama helped russia to get into the world trade organization, wto. he stopped jackson vanek, which discriminated against russia because of immigration policy, that piece of legislation should have gone a long time ago. it was obsolete. but overall obama went over his way to placate mr. putin and now the question is whether he is going to even have a summit with putin in moscow before the g-20
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summit in early september. >> maybe he won't go to the g-20 summit either. let me ask you one final question. on human rights, wouldn't this be a good time for the president and his people, secretary kerry, for example, step up the pressure on human rights. i don't care what you call it, russia, the kgb, putin, he looks more like a czar to me every day. what about the human rights story. why doesn't the u.s. gut get out there and make that a human calling card? >> the tragedy is 20 years after the collapse of kmund, roads today are in worse sap than they were under mikhail gersh cho-- gorbachev. they sew this is a vector that
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takes away from the united states into the embrace of the dragon. that's where putin wants to be. and putin makes us, the united states, as some kind of a big international bully and adversary of russia. and of course there's nothing further from the truth, especially under the presidency of barack obama. >> all right, we'll leave it there. ariel cohen, thank you very much. we appreciate it. >> the obama care battle heating up again in congress. what's the best way to stop the plan's dangerous threats to the health care and the economy. sn senator ted cruz still favors defunding. he was about o join us next up on the "kudlow report." meet the newest member of the quicken loans family:
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welcome back to the "kudlow report." i'm larry kudlow. with 60 days set for open enrollment for obama care, there's a movement brewing that the health care plan be defunded in order to keep government running, even causing government shutdown. texas senator ted cruz announced he'll be joining a series of town hall meetings this august recess to help build support for the effort.
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as always, senator cruz, thank you for coming on the show. i just want to say you are embarked on a very noble cause, if i may say that. but i am curious, why did you choose the tactic of defunding, which gets very, very complicated instead of let's say delaying and outright appeal. >> larry, thank you for having me. it's always great to join you. the reason why i'm focused on defunding is it is the only strategy that has any chance of success. there are a number of reasons why i think this is our best opportunity to defeat obama care and it may be our last opportunity. right now there is bipartisan agreement obama care isn't working. senator max baucus has described it as a huge train wreck. the head of the teamsters said obama is destroying the 40-hour
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work week that is the back bone of the american noomiddle class. and this week the irs union asked to be exempted from it. they don't want to be subject to it because the wheels are coming off. >> is the purpose of the national tour to put pressure on your own republican colleagues? because right now the country is not united on this particular tactic. they don't like obama care but they're they're not united. are you trying to put pressure on your fellow republicans? >> the purpose of the tour is to molie i mobilize and energize the american people. in order to win we've got to get 41 republicans in the senate or 218 republicans in the house. right now we don't have those votes.
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but just this week a national web site launched don' in just four or five days 140,000 people have signed up. if in the next 60 days we get hundreds of thousands or even millions of americans to sign the national ped digs at don'tfund, to pick up their phones, call this congressman and saying enough is enough. this is hurting health care, it hurting the american people and the most important constitutional check that congress has on an overreaching president is the power of the purse. if republican stand together, we can actually succeed? defending it. >> the problem i have, i'm a guy who doesn't want to matter with increases in the debt ceiling. you're going to get into a whole lot of trouble, up here in new
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york and around the world. yob wants to see you death with the debt ceiling. >> this strategy has nothing to do with the bet ceiling. i think the house of representatives should pass a continuing resolution that funds the entirety of the federal government except for obama care. it explicitly prohibits spend anything money on baul care. what would happen next -- we know because we've seen this play before -- president obama and harry reed would scream and yell. these mean, nasty republican would have to step up and say, no, we have voted to fund the government,y want to keep the government running, we don't want a partial at t-- he's gran
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wavers to giant corporations from obama care. why is president obama threatening to shut done the american government to deny the american people from the train wreck of a bill that is hurting the economy, jobs and our welfare. >> you're talking about roughly $200 and the changes, the is that what you're talking about? >> defunding it all. i filed legislation that prohibits one penny of federal money, discretionary or mandatory. if that came, it would be halted and put on the national tracks. >> let go to the house side now.
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where the act has more than 120 co-sponsors. yet speaker john boehner still nonacquittal. >> no decision has been made with how we're going to proceed. >> joining us now, marcia blackburn from tennessee. miss blackburn, you're a delay -- you're a delay supporter in your subcommittee. it just seems to me delay makes more sense than defund. tell me which you prefer. >> listen, we're getting anywhere we could to you know, what we're looking at at since this spending does become mandatory on january 1st, then
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delaying all these programs would prohibit the medicaid expansion, it would prohibit the subs zis from getting out of the door and then congressman graves has the house language that would handle defund. so we kind of add one more step in there, kind of an insurance policy, if you will, than our friends in the senate do. but we are delighted to have them working with us. we've been working to defund, delay, repeal and replace since this bill was fasspassed and we not giving up. >> peter welch, i want to ask you if you're one of the democratic signers. >> i'm not. it's fair and square to have though delays. and if marcia and senator cruz it k get the vote down and i don't think they can.
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many governments to capitulate to them winning their point of view. i think that's, a, a pipe dream. if we dole dee fault, which is and then secondly, i think we've got to get on with the program. there's going to be a lot of challenges in health care. some related to the implementation of boum care. i think we'd be better off if we listened to what the implication challenges were, work them out. >> we'll come up and say we don't like obama care. a lot of groups don't like obama care. i get that. what do you say as the option? 15 million, 20 million people would be ready to sign on to some form of the insurancence changes. >> that depends if the insurance exchanges are ready.
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after the hearing we had today with cms administrator, i'm not sure of them. if you want to have access for all americans, this is the way to do if. if you want to get rid of the -- it's a bad deal for the working class because of that 3.8% medicare tax. if you want across the state line purchase for health insurance, our way is the way to go. and if you want to make certain that you are going to be able to -- repeel it and replace it. then, yes, let's delay all taxes. let's defund all these programs and benefits and then get this off the books. a majority of the american people are with us on this.
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that's why we're working so hard. >> the one thing that intrigues me, the mandatory -- the mandatory obama care for business was waived for one year. i don't understand, peter, and really this isn't even a partisan question, how you cannot waive the individual mandate, simply because there is no verification of that and you'll have a why not just delay the individual mandate just as the business mandate was delayed? >> here's why. under obama care we're going to broadly extend access to health care. so most americans will have access to health care. my view, if you've got access to health care, you've got to pepe for it. people who have health care, whether they have it through an
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employer or buy it themselves, it's about $1,200. we all need health care. we may get a free ride for a while but we get sick. >> i'm not even going to deny that. there's no way to verify the eligibility of people to get the various subsidies. i think you're going to get here one incredible mess, which will have so much oaf raj. you're not policing that, you're not regulating that. hell, the irs unit itself that's supposed to run it doesn't want to do it themselves the eligibility and verifications is not there. not grounds enough whether you're a democrat or republican but just not to do it for a while. >> larry, i don't think so that's right because there's a lot of folks using any tactic they can ethey're very explicit about that. but we've got to get on with the
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program. the burden is to listen to the providers, the hospitals, the businesses to understand what the implementation challenges are. there is no law on health care that you could pass that would make it perfect and we haven't seen a replacement law from the opponents. so bottom line we got to get on with the program, make this work, we got to get access to healthy and get the cost down. >> i'll give you the last word. >> the problem with raising the eligibility process is this. people are going to go in, sign up, get on the program, get on a subsidy. and when have you seen them be able to close that subsidy. this thing is not ready for prime time. >> you're exactly right. >> we're just a few hours away
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from the big july jobs report. market is set to react. we'll get you prepared just ahead with a rip roaring debate on kudlow. stay with us.
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all right. tomorrow's big jobs report expected to add about 180,000 non-farm payrolls. yesterday's adp data added 200,000 private jobs and backs up those estimates. but my next guest is not so optimistic with his estimate. get this, 23,000 jobs.
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wow. so here is david sanchi and we also bring in global strategies bob cinch, who has a completely different view. now, david, 23,000 jobs. i got to hear the rational for this. >> okay. first of all, larry, we're not in the business of predicting with they will report. i will have to say the bls tomorrow will probably report an estimate of 150, 175,000 jobs. we use real time income tax collections to estimate employment change. every day across the country employers submit income and employment taxes to the treasury that are withheld from their employee's paychecks and the treasury reports that data each day on its web site and we analyze that data to make our employment estimate. now, our estimate is only 23,000
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for the month. the reason for that is we saw a sharp slowdown in withholdings growth late in the month. the bls establishment survey will not pick that you showdown because the reference week for july is the second week of the month. >> let me go to bob cinch. bob, is there merit behind what david is saying? and might that show up in august in terms of the bls payrolls? >> well, one thing we could be dealing with on the withheld side is fewer hours worked. there are some furloughs going on. so those people would still be employed but they wouldn't work as many hours. the amount of income and withheld taxes might go on as well. that could explain the discrepancy. >> you heard about 175,000.
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that's probably pretty close to the consensus. would you take the high or the low if europe going to change your forecast? how do you see the employment conditions themselves right now? and here's where i'm going. so many people are writing about temporary jobser that than permanent jobs. that's job creation has looked pretty good, just under 200,000 a month. but most of that growth has actually been in part-time jobs recently. one of our concerns is employer -- again, this is before obama care was pushed back on the employer mandate, whether the employers are saying if i hire two part-time workers rather than a fum-term worker, i may not be -- it.
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>> so, in fact, when that number comes out tomorrow, you have to dig underneath that number. david sanchie, does your revenue work, do you think the american economy is getting material live weaker as a result? >> yes, we do think it's weaker. and that's consistent with what the feds said yesterday. if you remember, the fed downgraded its assessment of the economy to moodest growth for mad earn gross. i think it's fair to ask will the taper happen at all and, if so, hugh big will it be? and will the. >> i don't see the economy
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collapse bug i don't think it's that strong. i don't think it's going to taper for many, many months. i think everyone is way out in front of that whole story. gentlemen, we thank you very much. david san chi, robert sinche, 25,000 versus 175,000. that is one heck of a spread. catch cnbc in the morning. that's our show. er. one that's 80% smaller. uses 89% less energy. and costs 77% less. it's called hp moonshot. and it's giving the internet the room it needs to grow. this going to be big. it's time to build a better enterprise. together. (announcer) scottrade knows our and invest their own way.
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>> narrator: in this episode of "american greed"... >> i didn't know his real name, i didn't know his real age, i didn't know whether or not anything that i had learned about him or thought i knew was in any way true. >> narrator: the perfect husband turns out to be an impostor. >> and if he wasn't dr. gerald barnes, who was he? >> narrator: and later... a businessman with a secret. >> he was leading these dual lives. >> narrator: a life built on lies and deception... >> he had absolutely no conscience. >> narrator: ...taking from those who know him and those who don't -- serial bank robber, in his own words.


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